War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (Apr 17, 2023) (1 Viewer)

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DeathHand

Let It All Bleed Out
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
April 17, 2023

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is seemingly regaining some favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin, likely as a result of the Russian conventional military’s inability to accomplish the tasks Putin had set for it during the winter offensive in Donbas. Wagner forces appear to be receiving reinforcements, ammunition, and political recognition – which is a stark deviation from the Kremlin’s previous efforts to expend Wagner forces and Prigozhin in Bakhmut since at least January 2023.

Wagner-affiliated sources announced on April 17 that Wagner is training up to three motorized rifle brigades of mobilized personnel to reinforce Wagner‘s flanks in Bakhmut. Prigozhin also confirmed that Russian airborne forces (VDV) are operating alongside Wagner and indicated that Wagner is actively receiving artillery shells. Prigozhin advocated for Wagner to receive more artillery shells, which indicates that Prigozhin has reestablished his supply of ammunition from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

The Russian State Duma will also consider amendments to the Russian law on veterans’ rights to grant veteran status to private military companies (PMCs) and volunteers. Prigozhin had been routinely advocating for Wagner personnel to be recognized as participants of the ”special military operation” in Ukraine, and the adoption of this bill would signify that Prigozhin’s position in the Kremlin inner circle has improved.

The extent of Putin’s trust and favor for Prigozhin is unclear at this time, but it is likely that Putin halted the Russian MoD’s efforts to avenge Wagner by denying Wagner reinforcements and ammunition. The New York Times, citing leaked Pentagon documents, reported that Putin personally attempted to resolve the feud between Wagner and the Russian MoD by holding a meeting between Shoigu and Prigozhin on February 22.

Putin could be turning back to Prigozhin after experiencing another disappointment with Russian conventional forces, which did not capture Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts frontlines before the April 1 date that Putin had reportedly set for them. Putin is reportedly once again reappointing select Wagner-affiliated commanders such as VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, which if true, suggests that he is prioritizing a decisive victory at least in Bakhmut in the near term.

Putin likely needs an immediate victory in Bakhmut ahead of Victory Day on May 9 or the rumored ”Direct Line” press conference he is preparing to hold in June to assert his authority among domestic audiences.

Source: Institute for the Study of War
 

Brother Birt

Bloody Tiddies!
This is fucked. The west will be publicly humiliated on the world stage. The Russians will not forfeit their territorial gains, regardless of whether or not they take over the whole of Ukraine or not. Then the other nations considering similar courses of action may pursue them, in light of current events.
 

Punisher_1

This user was banned
Another bad joke?

So Putin sent in conscripts that failed in the initial invasion.
Then the regulars come in and are fucked up as well.
Wagner has to recruit criminal types to fill the ranks.

UAF pushed Russia out of most areas and captured or destroy a significant amount of equipment.
What I noticed now from various footage they are no longer capturing Russian tanks they are destroying them even easily abandoned vehicles they are simply burning all of them and the ammo as well. So there must be some sort of shift in how they want to wage war. After all an easy-to-get T-72 or BMP and the pile of ammo in it is a useful tool.

If Ukraine obtains more offensive weapons this conflict is going to be over much faster.

@yotgguitar Oh look who just got done sucking Putin's cock and has time to shit post. Hey fill those pockets with sun flower seeds so we can find your corpse later on.
 
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DeathHand

Let It All Bleed Out
This is fucked. The west will be publicly humiliated on the world stage. The Russians will not forfeit their territorial gains, regardless of whether or not they take over the whole of Ukraine or not. Then the other nations considering similar courses of action may pursue them, in light of current events.
Why just the West? What about the European nations? Some estimates figure that, at the rate of Russia's current gains, it would take about a century to take the whole of Ukraine (just an estimate, not western propaganda, according to Perun). Part of Russia's problem is that the "West" supplied them with many components that they need for their military equipment - which of course they can't access now or have to pay 10x's more for from a friendly country.

I don't think anyone can confirm which side will win and who will be humiliated - unless you have a way to read the future. It's anyone's guess when it comes down to a war of attrition (yes, even Russia can attrit).
 

Brother Birt

Bloody Tiddies!
Why just the West? What about the European nations? Some estimates figure that, at the rate of Russia's current gains, it would take about a century to take the whole of Ukraine (just an estimate, not western propaganda, according to Perun). Part of Russia's problem is that the "West" supplied them with many components that they need for their military equipment - which of course they can't access now or have to pay 10x's more for from a friendly country.

I don't think anyone can confirm which side will win and who will be humiliated - unless you have a way to read the future. It's anyone's guess when it comes down to a war of attrition (yes, even Russia can attrit).
I guess you're right. It just scares me sometimes to see it all go down and know that it's a toss up. I've been a prepper for a long time, but nothing puts my hairs on end like the knowing in the back of my mind: nothing will ever truly prepare you for something that you have no direct access to. (Combat experience). I, and even others in my friend group with extensive military experience would be hard pressed to adapt to a full-on, country-on-country, war. Our last conflict that we had as Americans was with an insurgency and we didn't do good there. I heard horror stories about that too, but still, nothing compares to the massive scale destruction my grandfather told me about serving in the USN out in the pacific during WWII. That's what keeps me up at night; the possibility that it might happen again. I hope this shit ends soon.
 

D.O.A.

We are Kings
Another bad joke?

So Putin sent in conscripts that failed in the initial invasion.
Then the regulars come in and are fucked up as well.
Wagner has to recruit criminal types to fill the ranks.

UAF pushed Russia out of most areas and captured or destroy a significant amount of equipment.
What I noticed now from various footage they are no longer capturing Russian tanks they are destroying them even easily abandoned vehicles they are simply burning all of them and the ammo as well. So there must be some sort of shift in how they want to wage war. After all an easy-to-get T-72 or BMP and the pile of ammo in it is a useful tool.

If Ukraine obtains more offensive weapons this conflict is going to be over much faster.

@yotgguitar Oh look who just got done sucking Putin's cock and has time to shit post. Hey fill those pockets with sun flower seeds so we can find your corpse later on.

200 billion in aid.
Foreign mercenaries.
Foreign equipment.
20 percent of Ukrainian territory lost.
Can't even recapture a nuclear power plant.

Ukraine is fucked. All they can do is negotiate their way out now. The Russians will fight like they did in Afghanistan, Georgia, Crimea, Chechenya. For as many years as it takes. Attrition will "win" this. Not some hand holding faggots from NATO writing blank cheques.
 

Punisher_1

This user was banned
200 billion in aid.
Foreign mercenaries.
Foreign equipment.
20 percent of Ukrainian territory lost.
Can't even recapture a nuclear power plant.

Ukraine is fucked. All they can do is negotiate their way out now. The Russians will fight like they did in Afghanistan, Georgia, Crimea, Chechenya. For as many years as it takes. Attrition will "win" this. Not some hand holding faggots from NATO writing blank cheques.
That is your opinion.

While no one here has the 100% inside on this it is clear Russia a ranked 2 military has been fucked up by a rank 21/22 military with dated equipment.

The token amount of weapons and equipment is really a minimal effort by those involved. It is not enough to have a sweeping route of Russian forces it is simply "enough" to turn the tide to stalemate them.

Russia has lost more soldiers in a year than we have in 20 years of fighting overseas. The low estimate is 18k the high is over 100k
Ukraine has taken back regions
No sane people have a battle around a nuclear power plant.
UAF just took Bakhmut
Armor and other vehicles is in place for the spring offensive
Troops have been trained up on how to use these new weapon systems which are far more effective than Russian armor.
 
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